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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 30, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 30 13:01:59 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160330 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160330 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 327,148 27,825,324 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
5 % 145,701 12,068,945 New Orleans, LA...St. Louis, MO...Metairie, LA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Springfield, IL...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301301

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
   TX...SERN OK...SRN AR...NRN LA...AND WRN MS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN IA SWD INTO ERN
   TX/LA/MS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITH TORNADOES
   AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE
   OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD
   INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE/POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE GRADUALLY ESEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERAL
   BROADENING OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THE TROUGH.  BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD...ERN U.S. RIDGING WILL BE SUPPRESSED EWD
   TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH
   OF THE COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.  WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGHING...TWO
   SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
   CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD -- ONE NOW CENTERED INVOF NERN
   CO/THE NEB PNHDL AND THE OTHER CROSSING FAR W TX PER LATEST WV LOOP.
    THE W TX FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NEB/KS VICINITY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A BROAD
   SURFACE LOW INVOF CENTRAL NEB SWWD ACROSS WRN KS...THE TX AND OK
   PNHDLS...AND INTO SERN NM WILL ADVANCE GRADUALLY EWD/SEWD THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE NOW OVER FAR W TX IS
   FORECAST TO MIX EWD ACROSS WRN OK/WRN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS NRN
   MO/ERN KS/ERN OK AND INTO TX...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
   ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CONUS...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
   OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A MOISTENING -- BUT WELL-CAPPED -- BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NWD WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ATTM FROM
   CENTRAL AND ERN OK SWWD ACROSS NRN AND INTO CENTRAL/WRN TX...WITHIN
   A ZONE OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED W TX VORT MAX.

   WITH CLOUD COVER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- WHICH
   SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AS
   CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES...HEATING WILL BE HINDERED ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE AREA.  STILL...EXPECT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
   TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MO/AR/LA...AND 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE WHERE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
   EXPECTED.

   IN CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING ASCENT --
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY AREA AND ALSO
   ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS AHEAD OF THE TWO MID-LEVEL
   FEATURES -- WILL ALLOW CAP TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  TO THE S -- ACROSS
   THE ARKLATEX AREA -- EXPECT A GRADUAL/PERSISTENT INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE-BASED.  MEANWHILE
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE FROM NEB SWD INTO OK/N CENTRAL TX...STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...WITH THE GREATEST
   COVERAGE LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THE NERN KS/NRN MO AREA.

   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FEATURING MODERATELY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING/INCREASING TO WSWLY/SWLY AT MID LEVELS
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION.  ISOLATED CELLS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
   SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY.  LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
   WITHIN THE ZONE FROM NEB/IA SWD ACROSS KS/CENTRAL OK AND INTO N
   CENTRAL TX.  STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE
   EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER
   N -- NEARER THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

   FARTHER S -- AHEAD OF THE FEATURE CROSSING TX...STORMS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...MIXED STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED AS
   INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LEADS TO MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH
   IN SOME AREAS.  GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...TORNADO RISK SHOULD PROVE GREATER
   FROM NERN TX EWD/NEWD ACROSS MO/AR LA THIS AFTERNOON -- AND INTO MS
   THIS EVENING -- AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NW ALONG THE
   FRONT/DRYLINE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   LARGE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.  

   STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING FRONT...WITH GREATEST RISK LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
   AR/LA/MS/WRN TN AREAS THROUGH/BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

   ..GOSS/COOK.. 03/30/2016

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