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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 13, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 13 12:28:09 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180413 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180413 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ark-La-Tex to Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
 
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 23,643 1,906,042 Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
ENHANCED 131,978 8,887,140 Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...
SLIGHT 133,697 9,266,627 Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Garland, TX...Des Moines, IA...Jackson, MS...
MARGINAL 210,207 28,659,229 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131228

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0728 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AR...FAR NORTHEAST TX...FAR NORTHWEST LA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN IA TO
   NORTHEAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous to widespread severe storms are expected from the
   Mid-Missouri Valley south into the Ark-La-Tex states and Lower
   Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. Several tornadoes
   (some strong), very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive mid-level trough will amplify across the central Great
   Plains today, concurrent with a 100+ kt 500-mb jet developing from
   south-central OK to western MO by early Saturday. A surface cyclone
   along the north-central KS/south-central NE border will slowly track
   east to the southwest IA/northwest MO border by evening. A sharp
   warm front will arc east across southern IA with a dryline extending
   south across eastern portions of KS/OK/TX. A cold front will sweep
   southeast and overtake the dryline this evening. 

   ...East TX/OK to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
   Have upgraded to a tornado-driven Moderate risk centered on the
   Ark-La-Tex to central AR with the potential for several tornadoes to
   occur within this region late today through tonight. 

   Middle 60s surface dew points are prevalent from central OK to the
   Ark-La-Tex and should be diurnally maintained ahead of the dryline
   across eastern OK and most of AR. A swath of 50+ kt 850-mb
   southerlies will persist, yielding increasing boundary-layer
   moisture through this evening beneath an elevated mixed-layer. This
   should result in a broad plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg.
   Mid-level height falls in conjunction with confluent low-level flow
   should result in scattered storms developing in the mid-late
   afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex through central AR. More isolated,
   initially discrete storms should also develop along the dryline in
   east TX/OK. Enlarged low-level hodographs, which should further
   increase in size this evening, will support all hazards. While
   convective mode will likely transition to predominately clusters
   during the evening, the potential for a several hour window of
   numerous supercells traversing the Ark-La-Tex to central AR region
   yields increased confidence in the possibility of several tornadoes,
   some of which should be strong.

   During the overnight, a secondary strengthening of the low-level jet
   towards the Lower Mississippi Valley will likely yield upscale
   growth into one or more larger QLCSs that accelerate eastward. Such
   an evolution will favor a potentially widespread damaging
   wind/embedded tornado threat continuing east into early Saturday.
   Overall intensity should be tempered to some degree by convection
   outpacing surface-based instability, especially with northeast
   extent.

   ...Mid-MO Valley to the Ozarks...
   Ahead of the aforementioned dry line, the warm sector will be
   strongly capped early today, owing to a robust elevated mixed layer.
   However, as large-scale ascent notably increases this afternoon,
   cooling/moistening around 700mb, diabatic heating, and relatively
   modest boundary-layer moisture return will foster around 1000-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
   expected to develop during the late afternoon, from the surface low
   south along the dryline. Elongated straight-line hodographs will
   likely yield splitting supercells with very large hail the primary
   hazard. Rather warm surface temperatures in the 80s and dry-air
   aloft should tend to support outflow-dominated supercells. However,
   the tornado threat may become maximized in a narrow corridor near
   the warm front across southwest IA. Storm intensity will nocturnally
   wane in the mid/late evening.

   ..Grams/Goss.. 04/13/2018

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   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1629Z (9:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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Page last modified: April 13, 2018
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