METR 430

Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Course
Schedule
Prof. John Monteverdi
Dept. of Geosciences
SFSU, Spring 2008

Weather Briefing Charts

NCEP Portal

National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)

HPC Frontal Designations and Numerical Designations

Ocean Prediction Center

WGSL Scripts

Aviation Abbreviations

Week of Tentative Event/Assignment Week
Dec 15 15
Dec 8 and 10

Margules Equation

  • Applications: Thermal wind concept and circulation theorem leading to Margules' Equation

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence /Vertical Motion

Forecast Contest

Reading Assignments:

Bluestein, Chapter 5 app. 296-300; 303-306; 323-346
Djuric, Chapter 4. 60-61; Capter 7, 110-111; 119-121; Chapter 8, 126-130

Lab 5: Background Information for January 3-4, 2008 Case.....(from Homework 7) and some charts

14
Dec 1 and 3

Margules Equation

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence /Vertical Motion

Forecast Contest

Reading Assignments:

Bluestein, Chapter 5 app. 296-300; 303-306; 323-346
Djuric, Chapter 4. 60-61; Capter 7, 110-111; 119-121; Chapter 8, 126-130

Lab 5: Background Information for January 3-4, 2008 Case.....(from Homework 7)

13
Nov 17 and 19

 

More on Vorticity Equation and Patterns

Temperature Tendency Equations

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence /Vertical Motion

Forecast Contest

Homework 7Discussion

Midterm 2

Midterm 2 Key

12
Nov 10 and 12

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence /Vertical Motion

More on Vorticity Equation and Patterns

Temperature Tendency Equations

Fronts

Forecast Contest

Period 3 Forecast Stations

KSFO (Local site), KSEA (West Coast weather systems), KDLH (Alberta clippers, frozen precip, drastic temperature changes) , KJAN (Heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, Gulf wave cyclones), KPWM (Backdoor fronts, sleet/rain/nor' easters)

Homework 7

11
Nov 3 and 5

 

Circulation and Vorticity

General Circulation: Djuric Fig. 1-2, 1-4 (General Circulation--Metr 201)

Isallobaric Wind

Fronts

Forecast Contest

Lab 4

Readings

  • Djuric, Chapter 8, 9, 10, 11 (up to page 194)
  • Bluestein, Chapter 4, pp. 195-200; 247-261; Chapter 5, pp. 281-284; Browse Section 5.2.1; pp. 303-323.
  • Pineapple Connection Example
10
Oct 27 and 29

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence

Circulation and Vorticity

General Circulation: Djuric Fig. 1-2, 1-4 (General Circulation--Metr 201)

Isallobaric Wind

Forecast Contest

Lab 3: wxp convergence analysis; NCEP reanalysis divergence analysis

  • Readings
    • Djuric, Chapter 8, 9, 10, 11 (up to page 194)
    • Bluestein, Chapter 4, pp. 195-200; 247-261; Chapter 5, pp. 281-284; Browse Section 5.2.1; pp. 303-323.
    • Pineapple Connection Example

 

9
Oct 20 and 22

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence

Circulation and Vorticity

Forecast Contest

Homework 6 Discussion

Lab 3: wxp convergence analysis; NCEP reanalysis divergence analysis

Midterm 1

8
Oct 13 and 15

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence

Circulation and Vorticity

Homework

7
Oct 6 and 8

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence

Circulation and Vorticity

Fronts

Forecast Contest

Homework

Lab 2: Discussion....Tilt

Lab 3: Calculating Divergence

Reading: Vorticity and More on Temperature Advection (including the hodograph) (complete by Monday 8 October)

    • Bluestein:  pp. 19-21; 92-99; pp. 247-271; pp. 282-284
    • Djuric:  50-62 (again) Appendices H, I (temperature advection)
    • Vasquez: Review hodograph, pp. 49-55; Chapter 4, 5; 6 through p. 90; Chp 7 and 8
6
Oct 1 and 3

More on Synoptic-scale Divergence

Some Review and Applications

Fronts

Homework

Lab 2: Discussion....Tilt

Lab 3: Calculating Divergence

Reading: Vorticity and More on Temperature Advection (including the hodograph) (complete by Monday 8 October)

    • Bluestein:  pp. 19-21; 92-99; pp. 247-271; pp. 282-284
    • Djuric:  50-62 (again) Appendices H, I (temperature advection)
    • Vasquez: Review hodograph, pp. 49-55; Chapter 4, 5; 6 through p. 90; Chp 7 and 8
5
Sep 22 and 24 4
Sep 15 and 17

Comments for Homework 1

Homework 3

Lab 1 Key

Lab 2

3
Sep 8 and 10

September 10

September 8

    • Doswell, C.A. III, 1986: The Human Element in Weather Forecsting, Nat. Wea. Dig., 11, 6-17. (What is science? What does Doswell believe is the major problem in equating science with technology? How does the task of the forecaster relate to the first two terms of a Taylor Expansion? Why should weather analysis NOT be burden to forecasters? What is the danger in using "correlations" (the occurrence of one event related to the occurrence of another) (empiricism) as a sole way of forecasting? What is the danger in using computer models as black boxes? (objectivity)
    • Some Examples: Man vs Machine: mod_grib, 500 mb analysis and Rex Block
    • Inclass Exercise 2: and In-class 2 Key
    • Equations of Motion

Reading for September 15, 2008

  • Augulis, Richard P., 1978: Man still most important…but for how long? Preprints, Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis and Aviation Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
  • Pielke, Roger, 1978: The role of man in the weather service of the future. Bring back analysis. Preprints, Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis and Aviation Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
  • Ramage, Colin S., 1978: Bring back analysis. Preprints, Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis and Aviation Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
  • Wagoner, Richard, National Weather Service Western Region, 1981: Final score: Hand analysis & satellite 10....NWP & AFOS 0
2
Sep 5

Reading Assignments:

In Textbooks for completion by 10 September:

Bluestein, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2, pp. 32-39, 57-69
Djuric, Chapters 1 and 2; pp.29-41
Vasquez (WxFcstHandbook) Chp 1-3

For Monday, 8 September, read Doswell, C.A. III, 1986: The Human Element in Weather Forecsting, Nat. Wea. Dig., 11, 6-17.

1b
Aug 27 1a