SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

Case Study on the development of the Synoptic, Thermodynamic, and Shear environment for the Severe Weather event on May 7, 2002 in the Great Plains

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500 mb Upper Air Chart for 8 May, 2002 00Z shows a deep trough moving into the western half of the United States. With this the 0-6 km upper level winds will be nearly perpendicular to the winds coming from the southeast out of the Gulf of Mexico. If the winds are coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and the deep layer shear is strong enough there will be significant thunderstorm development.
Surface Chart for 7 May 2002 22Z shows a low situated over the Colorado/New Mexico border with a warm front pushing northward into Kansas and a cold front pushing into the Texas panhandle. Also depicted are isodrosotherms which hint at the amount of CAPE is in the area and to the strength of the buoyant updrafts.
Norman, Oklahoma sounding for 8 May 2002 00Z shows large amounts of CAPE with very little CINH. The hodograph shows that the deep layer shear and the 3 km helicity are significant and a strong veering (large hook) of the winds.
0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity and Storm Motion for 7 May 2002 19Z shows incredible amounts of helicity that the speed and direction of any developing storms will be fast and to the northeast. With these conditions and the above stated conditions severe thunderstorm development is highly favorable. These highly favorable conditions did in fact bring severe thunderstorm development to fruition as can be seen from the storm report on the previous page.