SAN FRANCISCO STATE UNIV
DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES

 SPRING 1999


Meteorology 503

Advanced Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Instructor: John Monteverdi

Units: 3

Time/Day: Lec WF 9:10-10AM

Room: 604 TH

Lab WF 10:10-11:30

Office Hours: M 1000-1200, Th 1300-1400 or by appointment.

Purpose of the Course

The meteorology curriculum at SFSU has been partially developed on the basis of guidelines suggested by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the National Weather Service (NWS). The AMS is in the process of setting up a "minimum suggested curriculum" for undergraduate degrees in atmospheric science. In addition, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NWS list the courses required for entry level meteorologists in goverment service. These requirements are familiar to students at SFSU since the instructors here have been advising all regarding these the last several years.

In the area ofSynoptic Meteorology, 9 units are required. All of you have taken the 4 unit majors core course Metr 403. Most of you have taken Metr 698, 603, 703 and/or 201. All of these courses were set up to help students meet AMS and NWS requirements. Metr 503 is another course which will meet this need.

Metr 503 is the logical extension of Metr 403. As you recall, the Metr 403 and Metr 480 (Satellite Meteorology) courses have been combined because it is often appropriate to discuss satellite interpretation techniques at the time that a given topic comes up in Weathern Analysis and Forecasting. You have had a bit of this already in Metr 403.

Satellite imagery represents one of the most important tools that operational meteorologists have at their disposal. Of course, the existence of a satellite image itself provides no help in a forecasting problem unless the meteorologist knows how to interpret it. National Weather Service lead forecasters all have the ability to critically analyze satellite imagery and to integrate such interpretations into their forecasting decisions.

Such skills are especially important on the West Coast since satellite-inferred information is often the only source of "data" available for certain sections of the Pacific. The well-trained satellite analyst will be able to locate frontal systems, jet streams and streaks, ridge and trough axes, vorticity centers, etc. even when conventional charts (e.g., upper tropospheric constant pressure charts) are missing. I know of no operational meteorologist who is unable to interpret satellite imagery accurately and quickly.

In addition, researchers in the area of operational meteorology are developing new tools which allow forecasters to estimate strength of thunderstorms, precipitation amounts, potential for explosive "bomb" development etc. Many of these tools can be applied now to the imagery available from the GOES satellite. This makes the Department's GOES TAP Weather Graphics System combined with the AVHRR data (available to the Department through NASA) and WXP absolutely invaluable sources of information for student and faculty forecasters alike.

Besides satellite image interpretation, there are many topics to be discussed for which foundation was laid in Metr 403. These include applications of quasigeostrophic theory to the development of synoptic-scale circulation systems, discussions of frontal theory and jet streams, and, finally, an overview of what is currently known about convective systems.

Grading Plan

Weekly Homeworks 100 points

Laboratory Exercises (5) 150 points

Forecasts, Pop Quizzes, Etc, 150 points

Midterms (2X100) 200 points

Paper 200 points

Final 200 points

1000 POINTS

Text Books

Required:

Bluestein, H, 1992 or later: Synoptic and Dynamic Meteorology, Vol. 1 and 2.

Djuric, D, 1994: Weather Analysis

Recommended:

Bader, Forbes, Grant, Lilley and Waters, 1996: Images in Weather Forecasting

Supplementary readings may come from:

Satellite Imagery Interpretation for Forecasters, December 1986, $57.

Additional supplementary reading will come from a variety of sources, but will be distributed to the students by the instructor.

Tentative Course Schedule

Weeks Topic(s)

1 Deformation

2 Deformation; QG-Omega and Height-Tendency Eqs.

3 QG-Omega and Height-Tendency Eqs.

4 Synoptic Extratropical Systems: Formation and Behavior

5 Synoptic Extratropical Systems: Formation and Behavior

Midterm 1 March 6

6 Synoptic Extratropical Systems: Formation and Behavior

7 Fronts and Jet Streams

8 Fronts and Jet Streams

9 Fronts and Jet Streams

10 Convective Systems

Midterm 2 April 18

11 Convective Systems

12 Convective Systems

13 Convective Systems

14 Convective Systems

15 Convective Systems

Final: May 19

Paper Due: May 19