METR 535/835:
Analysis and Prediction of Severe Storms
Course
Schedule
Prof. John Monteverdi
Dept. of Geosciences
SFSU, Fall 2011

Note:

SCS = Doswell, C.A. III (Editor), 2001: Severe Convective Storm., Meteor. Monogr., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 561 pp.

MMM= Markowski, Paul; and Yvette Richardson: 2010: Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Wiley-Blackwell, 407 pp.

Class Material Links from the Past

SPC Mesoanalysis Page

Forecast Sounding Portal

FSL Interactive Sounding Site

RUC Sounding Generator (including archive)

Real-Time Weather Page

Severe Thunderstorm Climatology

NWS Satellite and Radar Portals

NCEP Reanalysis Portal

NCDC Radar Viewer Access

Level III Product Codes

Holographic Data Storage System (HDSS) Access

Class Of Tentative Event/Assignment Week
  Paper Grading/Comment Rubric  
December 9 14
December 2
  • Class Presentations for 2 December 2011
  • Assignments: (In the past several students simply have not turned anything in on Due Dates. This Due Date is firm. No only will you not get the points for the assignment, but you will also have 25 points for each assignment deducted for final grade).
    • Inclass 5: Joplin Tornadic Supercell Storm Relative Helicity (Due 2 December)
    • Presenters 9 December:
      • Chris Stumpf and Lesee Andonian: Monteverdi et al. (2010) (See below)
      • Vanessa Almanza: Monteverdi et al. (2008) (See below)
      • Matt Kassouf : Monteverdi et al. (2016) (See below)
  • Reading (for week of October 3)
    • SCS, Chapter 11: Moller, Alan R., 2001: Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Meteorological Monographs, 28, 433–480.
      doi: 10.1175/0065-9401-28.50.433
    • SCS, Chapter 5: Davies-Jones, Robert, Trapp, R. Jeffrey, and Howard B. Bluestein, 2001: Tornadoes and Tornadic Storms. Meteor. Monogr., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167-217. SCS, Chapter 5 (most, but large portions omitted...see below)
      • a) Sections 5.1, and 5.2a; 5.2.c.4.d.I (Intermediate Cases--Theory of Rotation Near The Ground--Baroclinic Mechanisms); pp. 167-172; 180- through left hand column of 181; (Jaq)
      • b) Section 5.2.c.4.d..e (Forecast Parameters) and 5.3, 188-196 (Victor)
    • Examples of Papers:
      • Monteverdi, J. P., Umscheid, M. and E. Bookbinder, 2010: Two tornadic thunderstorms in ostensibly weak deep layer shear environments in southeastern Colorado: cyclic supercells of May 25 (Kiowa County) and May 31 (Baca County) 2010 (Poster P10.15). AMS 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms to be held 11-15 October, 2010 in Denver, CO. (pdf) (Chris (25 May 2010 case) and Lexee (31 May 2010 case))
      • Monteverdi, J.P., E. Polito, M. Gough, R. Bethke, and T. Seddon, 2008: An Analysis of a Prolific Tornado-producing Cyclic Supercell Thunderstorm in Nuckolls County Nebraska, May 24, 2004. Paper number: P3.1, 24th Conf. Sev. Local Storms, 27-31 October, 2008, Savannah, Georgia. (pdf) (Matt)
      • Monteverdi, J.P., K. Saussy, A. Cross, C. Meherin, C. Medjber and S. Lau, 2006: An analysis of the 22 May 2004 Furnas County, Nebraska tornadic supercell. 23rd Conf. Sev. Local Storms, Preprints, St. Louis, MO. (pdf) (Vanessa)
      • Landolt, Scott D., Porter, Daniel L. and John P. Monteverdi, 2004: An Analysis of the June 23rd, 2002, Brown County, South Dakota Tornadic Cyclical Supercell. Preprints, P10.5, 22nd AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA.(pdf)
  • Bibliography of California Tornado Papers by JPM
    • Monteverdi, J. P., C. Doswell III, and G.S. Lipari, 2003: Shear parameter thresholds for forecasting tornadic thunderstorms in northern and central California. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 357-370. (ppt)
    • Monteverdi, J. P., W. Blier, G. Stumpf, W. Pi and K. Anderson, 2001: First WSR-88D documentation of a an anticyclonic supercell with anticyclonic tornadoes: the Sunnyvale/Los Altos tornadoes of 4 May 1998, Mon.Wea.Rev., 129, 2805-2814.
    • Monteverdi, J.P. and S. Johnson, 1996: A supercell thunderstorm with hook echo in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 246-261.
    • Monteverdi, J.P. and J. Quadros, 1994: Convective and rotational parameters associated with three tornado episodes in northern and central California, Wea. Forecasting, 9, 165-178.
    • Braun, S.A. and J.P. Monteverdi, 1991: An investigation of a mesocyclone-induced tornado occurrence in northern California, Wea. Forecasting 6, 13-31.
    • Monteverdi, J.P., Braun, S.A., and T.C. Trimble, 1988: Funnel clouds in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Mon.Wea.Rev.116, 782-789.
13
November 18
  • Assignments: (In the past several students simply have not turned anything in on Due Dates. This Due Date is firm. No only will you not get the points for the assignment, but you will also have 25 points for each assignment deducted for final grade).
    • Inclass 5: Joplin Tornadic Supercell Storm Relative Helicity (Due 2 December)
    • Presenters 2 December:
      • Chris Stumpf: SCS, Chapter 11, Tornado Forecasting from page 447 though 458.
      • Denise Balukas: SCS, Chapter 11, Tornado Forecasting from page 459 though 473.
      • Jaqueline Bennett: SCS, Chapter 5 (Certain sections...see below)
      • Victor FrankSCS, Chapter 5 (Certain sections...see below)
    • Presenters 9 December:
      • Chris Stumpf and Lesee Andonian: Monteverdi et al. (2010) (See below)
      • Vanessa Almanza: Monteverdi et al. (2008) (See below)
      • Matt Kassouf : Monteverdi et al. (2016) (See below)
  • Reading (for week of October 3)
    • SCS, Chapter 11: Moller, Alan R., 2001: Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Meteorological Monographs, 28, 433–480.
      doi: 10.1175/0065-9401-28.50.433
    • Weisman, Morris L., Joseph B. Klemp, 1984: The Structure and Classification of Numerically Simulated Convective Stormsin Directionally Varying Wind Shears. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2479–2498
    • Davies-Jones, Robert, Trapp, R. Jeffrey, and Howard B. Bluestein, 2001: Tornadoes and Tornadic Storms. Meteor. Monogr., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167-217. SCS, Chapter 5 (most, but large portions omitted...see below)
      • a) Sections 5.1, and 5.2a; 5.2.c.4.d.I (Intermediate Cases--Theory of Rotation Near The Ground--Baroclinic Mechanisms); pp. 167-172; 180- through left hand column of 181; (Jaq)
      • b) Section 5.2.c.4.d..e (Forecast Parameters) and 5.3, 188-196 (Victor)
    • Examples of Papers:
      • Monteverdi, J. P., Umscheid, M. and E. Bookbinder, 2010: Two tornadic thunderstorms in ostensibly weak deep layer shear environments in southeastern Colorado: cyclic supercells of May 25 (Kiowa County) and May 31 (Baca County) 2010 (Poster P10.15). AMS 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms to be held 11-15 October, 2010 in Denver, CO. (pdf) (Chris (25 May 2010 case) and Lexee (31 May 2010 case))
      • Monteverdi, J.P., E. Polito, M. Gough, R. Bethke, and T. Seddon, 2008: An Analysis of a Prolific Tornado-producing Cyclic Supercell Thunderstorm in Nuckolls County Nebraska, May 24, 2004. Paper number: P3.1, 24th Conf. Sev. Local Storms, 27-31 October, 2008, Savannah, Georgia. (pdf) (Matt)
      • Monteverdi, J.P., K. Saussy, A. Cross, C. Meherin, C. Medjber and S. Lau, 2006: An analysis of the 22 May 2004 Furnas County, Nebraska tornadic supercell. 23rd Conf. Sev. Local Storms, Preprints, St. Louis, MO. (pdf) (Vanessa)
      • Landolt, Scott D., Porter, Daniel L. and John P. Monteverdi, 2004: An Analysis of the June 23rd, 2002, Brown County, South Dakota Tornadic Cyclical Supercell. Preprints, P10.5, 22nd AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA.(pdf)
    • MMM:
      • Following Chapters should have been completed: Chapters 1 and 2; Chapter 3 (Section on Static Instability); Chapter 4 (88-105); Chapter 5 (Drylines, Outflow Boundaries and Mesoscale Boundaries); Chapters 7 and 8.
      • Chapters 9 (MCSs) and 10 (Severe Storm Hazards)
12
November 4
  • Class Presentations for 4 November 2011
    • Paper Discussion: Due Date--9AM 14 December 2011
    • Victor Frank (Weisman and Klemp, Sections 1, 2, 3) (Section 5 is skipped)
    • Lexee Andonian (Weisman and Klemp, Sections 4, 6, 7) (Section 5 is skipped)
  • Thunderstorms
  • Assignments: (In the past several sudents simply have not turned anything in on Due Dates. This Due Date is firm. No only will you not get the points for the assignment, but you will also have 25 points for each assignment deducted for final grade).
    • Inclass 4: Storm Relative Helicity (Should be turned in no later than Wednesday 9 November)
    • Inclass 3: 1200 UTC and 0000 UTC First Pass FINAL* Analyses (Should be turned in no later than Wednesday 9 November)--*Adobe Illustrator
    • Presenters 18 November 2011 and 2 December:
      • Vanessa Almanza: SCS, Chapter 11, pp. 433-439
      • Matt Kassouf : SCS, Chapter 11, pp. 440-447 (through section f.)
      • Chris Stumpf: SCS, Chapter 11, Tornado Forecasting from page 447 though 458.
      • Denise Balukas: SCS, Chapter 11, Tornado Forecasting from page 459 though 473.
      • Jaqueline Bennett: SCS, Chapter 5 (Certain sections...see below)
      • Victor FrankSCS, Chapter 5 (Certain sections...see below)
      • Lesee Andonian: Monteverdi et al. (2010) (See below)
      • Vanessa Almanza: Monteverdi et al. (2008) (See below)
      • Matt Kassouf : Monteverdi et al. (2016) (See below)
  • Reading (for week of October 3)
    • SCS, Chapter 11: Moller, Alan R., 2001: Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Meteorological Monographs, 28, 433–480.
      doi: 10.1175/0065-9401-28.50.433
    • Weisman, Morris L., Joseph B. Klemp, 1984: The Structure and Classification of Numerically Simulated Convective Stormsin Directionally Varying Wind Shears. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2479–2498
    • Davies-Jones, Robert, Trapp, R. Jeffrey, and Howard B. Bluestein, 2001: Tornadoes and Tornadic Storms. Meteor. Monogr., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167-217. SCS, Chapter 5 (most, but large portions omitted...see below)
      • a) Sections 5.1, and 5.2a; 5.2.c.4.d.I (Intermediate Cases--Theory of Rotation Near The Ground--Baroclinic Mechanisms); pp. 167-172; 180- through left hand column of 181; (Jaq)
      • b) Section 5.2.c.4.d..e (Forecast Parameters) and 5.3, 188-196 (Victor)
    • Examples of Papers:
      • Monteverdi, J. P., Umscheid, M. and E. Bookbinder, 2010: Two tornadic thunderstorms in ostensibly weak deep layer shear environments in southeastern Colorado: cyclic supercells of May 25 (Kiowa County) and May 31 (Baca County) 2010 (Poster P10.15). AMS 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms to be held 11-15 October, 2010 in Denver, CO. (pdf) (Lexee)
      • Monteverdi, J.P., E. Polito, M. Gough, R. Bethke, and T. Seddon, 2008: An Analysis of a Prolific Tornado-producing Cyclic Supercell Thunderstorm in Nuckolls County Nebraska, May 24, 2004. Paper number: P3.1, 24th Conf. Sev. Local Storms, 27-31 October, 2008, Savannah, Georgia. (pdf) (Matt)
      • Monteverdi, J.P., K. Saussy, A. Cross, C. Meherin, C. Medjber and S. Lau, 2006: An analysis of the 22 May 2004 Furnas County, Nebraska tornadic supercell. 23rd Conf. Sev. Local Storms, Preprints, St. Louis, MO. (pdf) (Vanessa)
      • Landolt, Scott D., Porter, Daniel L. and John P. Monteverdi, 2004: An Analysis of the June 23rd, 2002, Brown County, South Dakota Tornadic Cyclical Supercell. Preprints, P10.5, 22nd AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA.(pdf)
    • MMM:
      • Following Chapters should have been completed: Chapters 1 and 2; Chapter 3 (Section on Static Instability); Chapter 4 (88-105); Chapter 5 (Drylines, Outflow Boundaries and Mesoscale Boundaries); Chapters 7 and 8.
      • Chapters 9 (MCSs) and 10 (Severe Storm Hazards)
11
October 28 10
October 21 9
October 13 8
October 6 7
September 30
  • Class Presentations for 30 September 2011
  • Assignments
    • Reading Questions, Due 7 October 2011
    • Reading Questions, Due 30 September 2011 (key)
    • Presenters 30 September and 7 October 2011:
      • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.6.3.d of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF): The Role of Vertical Wind Shear; Helicity; Hodograph and Historical Overview
      • Vanessa Almanza Chapter 3 (Citation Below (N.B.: No PDF for this Chapter.)(Sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3.a)
      • Matt Kassouf (Sections 3.3b, 3.3c.1, 3.4)
      • Chris Stumpf: Doswell, C.A. III, 1991: A Review for Forecasters on the Application of Hodographs to Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms. Nat. Wea. Dig , 16, No. 1, 2-16 (Web)
  • Laboratory 2
  • Reading (for week of September 30)
    • SCS, Chapter 3, Johnson, R. H., and B. E. Mapes, 2001: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather. Severe Convective Storms, Ed. by C.A. Doswell III, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 71-122. Read Sections 3.1 through 3.4 , pp. 71-89 not including 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 (Gravity Currents, Waves, Bores and Solitary Waves), and then 94-100
    • Doswell, C.A. III, 1991: A Review for Forecasters on the Application of Hodographs to Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms. Nat. Wea. Dig , 16, No. 1, 2-16 (Web)
    • MMM, Chapter 5, Sections 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 (Drylines, Outflow Boundaries, Mesoscale Boundaries etc.), pp. 132-160; Chapter 7, pp. 183-188 (Convective Initiation Issues....Lowering the LFC by altering the lapse rate)
6
September 23
  • Class Presentations for 23 September 2011
  • Assignments
    • Reading Questions, Due 30 September 2011
    • Reading Questions, Due 23 September 2011 (Key)
    • Presenters for 23 and 30 September 2011:
      • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.6.3.d of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF): The Role of Vertical Wind Shear; Helicity; Hodograph
      • Lexee Andonian- Section 2.8 (pp. 59-64 in SCS; In PDF starting with page 25) -- Examples of severe convective events from a synoptic perspective.
      • Vanessa Almanza Chapter 3 (Citation Below (N.B.: No PDF for this Chapter.)(Sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3.a)
      • Matt Kassouf (Sections 3.3b, 3.3c.1, 3.4)
  • Laboratory 2
  • Reading (for week of September 10)
    • SCS, Chapter 3, Johnson, R. H., and B. E. Mapes, 2001: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather. Severe Convective Storms, Ed. by C.A. Doswell III, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 71-122. Read Sections 3.1 through 3.4 , pp. 71-89 not including 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 (Gravity Currents, Waves, Bores and Solitary Waves), and then 94-100
    • Doswell, C.A. III, 1991: A Review for Forecasters on the Application of Hodographs to Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms. Nat. Wea. Dig , 16, No. 1, 2-16 (Web)
    • MMM, Section 2.4, 2.6 and 2.7; Chapter 8, pp. 201-208
5
September 16
  • Class Presentations for 16 September 2011
  • Assignments
    • Reading Questions, Due 23 September 2011: Presentations of 16 September
    • Reading Questions, Due 16 September 2011: Presentations of 9 September
    • Presenters for 23 and 30 September 2011:
      • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.6.3.d of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF): The Role of Vertical Wind Shear; Helicity; Hodograph
      • Lexee Andonian- Section 2.8 (pp. 59-64 in SCS; In PDF starting with page 25) -- Examples of severe convective events from a synoptic perspective.
      • Vanessa Almanza Chapter 3 (Citation Below (N.B.: No PDF for this Chapter.)(Sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3.a)
      • Matt Kassouf (Sections 3.3b, 3.3c.1, 3.4)
  • Laboratory 2
  • Reading (for week of September 10)
    • SCS, Chapter 3, Johnson, R. H., and B. E. Mapes, 2001: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather. Severe Convective Storms, Ed. by C.A. Doswell III, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 71-122. Read Sections 3.1 through 3.4 , pp. 71-89 not including 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 (Gravity Currents, Waves, Bores and Solitary Waves), and then 94-100
    • Doswell, C.A. III, 1991: A Review for Forecasters on the Application of Hodographs to Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms. Nat. Wea. Dig , 16, No. 1, 2-16 (Web)
    • MMM, Section 2.4, 2.6 and 2.7; Chapter 8, pp. 201-208
4
September 9
  • Class Presentations for 9 September 2011
    • Chris Stumpf--Doswell, C.A. III, 1987: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 4-16. (PDF)
    • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF): Part 1 Equations of Motion,; Inertial Advective Effects; Jet Streak Dynamics; (Parcel vs Layer Lift): Diagram 1, Diagram 2, Diagram 3, Diagram 4
    • Victor Frank-- Sections 2.4 and 2.5 of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF):
    • Jaqueline Bennett--Sections 2.6.a (and subsections), 2.6.b, 2.6.c. of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF):
  • Assignments
    • Reading Questions, Due 16 September 2011: Presentations of 9 September
    • Reading Questions, Due 9 September 2011: Presentations of 2 September
    • Presenters for 16 September 2011:
      • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.6.3.d of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF): The Role of Vertical Wind Shear; Helicity
      • Lexee Andonian- Section 2.8 (pp. 59-64 in SCS; In PDF starting with page 25) -- Examples of severe convective events from a synoptic perspective.
  • Laboratory 2
  • Reading (for week of September 10)
    • SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF)
    • Read/Review, MMM, Chapter 2
    • Bluestein, Volume 1, pp. 128-130.
    • SCS, Chapter 3, Johnson, R. H., and B. E. Mapes, 2001: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather. Severe Convective Storms, Ed. by C.A. Doswell III, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 71-122. Read Sections 3.1 through 3.4 , pp. 71-89 not including 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 (Gravity Currents, Waves, Bores and Solitary Waves), and then 94-100
3
September 2
  • Class Presentation
  • Assignments
    • Reading Questions, Due 9 September 2011: Presentations of 2 September
    • Presenters for 9 September 2011:
      • John Monteverdi- Sections 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. PDF)):
      • Victor Frank-- Sections 2.4 and 2.5 of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. (PDF):
      • Jaqueline Bennett--Sections 2.6.a (and subsections), 2.6.b, 2.6.c. of SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. PDF)):
  • Laboratory 1
  • Reading (for week of September 10)
    • SCS, Chapter 2: Doswell, C.A. III, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Extratropical synoptic-scale processes and severe convection. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr ., 28, no. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-69. PDF))
    • Read/Review, MMM, Chapter 2
2
August 27
1