Wouldn't you know it? Pattern setting up in reasonable fashion near Lubbock. However Thom and Bruce have to leave from Denver the next morning. |
 Forecast Surface Pattern for the afternoon had surface low forming in east-central CO. Good southeasterly flow through the South Plains of TX into the Panhandle. |
 This set up a strong directional shear pattern with NW flow aloft and SE flow at the surface. Forecast storm motion in this kind of setup was due south. |
 Same flow with decent strength at 250 mb. |
 CAPE was forecast to be more than sufficient. |
 Surface to 3 km helicity indicated that low level shear was also favorable. |
 We set up near Silverton, TX and waited hopoing that a low level cumulus field would develop. |
CAPE values began to develop as progged, while CIN disappeared. |
 Moisture convergence was maximum was bit west of our location. |
Supercell composite index was also favorable. |
Storm relative helicities very nice in the 0-3 km layer, but deep layer shear was unidirectional (not shown). |
LCLs kind of high. Not much risk this day of anything significant happening, but we hoped. |
Ta da. Low level cumulus field develops. |
Storm Forms Right Over Our Heads. |
Storm splits (looking north) before it can do anything. More impressive storms to our west. |