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Jun- 2-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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   SPC AC 020558
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
   BPT 45 SE JCT 45 SW JCT 45 WSW SJT 35 NNW MAF 50 NNE ROW 30 WSW RTN
   15 NW PUB 25 S LIC 30 E LBL 40 SW TUL 40 NNW HOT 15 WSW MEM 25 SW
   BWG 15 SW LEX 50 E LUK 10 S MFD 15 ENE JHW 20 SSE GFL 25 ESE PSM
   ...CONT... 25 SE WAL 10 N LYH 25 WSW HSS 30 N GAD 45 WNW AUO 20 WNW
   ABY AYS 25 NE SSI ...CONT... 15 ESE DAB 35 S CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW
   10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE
   DGW 20 SE ICT 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW STL 10 E DTW ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR
   30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB ...CONT... 40 S CRP LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...AND FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/NRN FL INTO
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
   EJECT ENEWD WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVER THE WRN
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.  AT THE SURFACE...SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
   THAT HAVE MOVED SEWD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STALL VCNTY NRN
   FL...SRN STATES AND N TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
   SWING SEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
   LIKELY FOCUS TSTM THREATS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OH VLY...
   CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. 
   THOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME...H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15C
   ATOP 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LIKELY FAVORING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   SURFACE TROUGH.  GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTM
   CLUSTERS WILL TEND TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ISOLD
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN AOA 40 KTS.
   
   ...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   A WEAK WAVE TOPPING WRN STATES RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE TN VLY
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
   MID MS VLY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT.  GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL
   INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING...TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY
   THIS BOUNDARY/LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 60 KTS MAY
   AUGMENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM TN INTO PARTS OF ERN KY.
   
   ...NRN FL TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   WELL-DEFINED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLY
   DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD UPSTREAM ACROSS AR AND NRN MS. 
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND COULD INTENSIFY
   ALONG THE ERN EDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON-DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN PARTS OF
   MS/AL AND NRN FL.  OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL...BUT IF
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CAN HEAT...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. 
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  SURFACE
   DIVERGENCE BEGINS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM LA WWD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
   BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SRN HIGH PLAINS HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT
   MAY DECREASE WITH TIME OVER THESE AREA.  
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NCNTRL TX...
   SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER NW ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE 
   HIGH WILL BE NOSING DOWN INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL TURN
   SURFACE FLOW UPSLOPE...ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH 8-8.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  
   
   DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR
   TSTM INITIATION BY MID-AFTERNOON.  OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN
   INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. 
   TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES
   TO 3500-4500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING.  GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO
   NWRN/NCNTRL TX.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...IT SHOULD
   INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   EXIST.
   
   AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...TSTM
   PROPAGATION SHOULD FAVOR A SWD MOVEMENT.  THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY
   FOR A WIND DAMAGING MCS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK/NWRN/NCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT... BUT
   PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.  
   
   ...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL...
   WEST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND
   PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON.  MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
   TUESDAY AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT STRONG UPDRAFTS. 
   ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1238Z, RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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