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May-24-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

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1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic

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   SPC AC 240605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 25
   NNW STJ 40 SSE BIE 25 ENE CNK 35 W BIE 20 NW LNK 20 NNW OMA 35 N DSM
   25 NW MLI 35 ESE MLI PIA 45 WSW PIA 40 ENE IRK P35.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   SZL 15 W MKC 15 NW EMP 25 NE HUT 30 ESE RSL 30 S HSI 30 SW OFK 10
   NNE SUX 30 WSW MCW 50 NW DBQ 30 W JVL 35 NNE MMO 40 ENE BMI DEC 40
   WSW SPI 40 N SZL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
   CSM 35 W CSM 40 WNW GAG 40 WNW HLC 15 NW BBW 45 W YKN 10 NNE OTG 15
   WSW VOK 15 S MKG 40 NNW MFD 20 ENE PKB 25 SW SSU 25 N HKY AVL 30 SW
   TYS 30 E BNA 30 WNW HOP 55 NW CGI 45 NNE SGF 30 NW JLN 10 SE PNC 25
   NW OKC 25 ESE CSM 20 SW CSM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
   DOV 20 ESE AVP BGM 30 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 NNW PBG EFK 30 S AUG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF
   35 N BZN 50 SW BIL 15 NE SHR 20 N GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN
   45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 30 E INL 45 ENE DLH 45
   ESE RHI 45 NW MBL 20 NE TVC 40 E PLN ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DAB 10 SE GNV 35
   NW GNV 30 E VLD 45 SE MCN 25 SSW ATL 30 SSW MSL 25 SSW MEM 25 W LIT
   25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 35
   WNW MAF 25 N PVW 50 SSW LBL 15 NW LBL 30 W GCK 50 ENE LAA LHX 35 SSE
   MTJ 45 NNE 4BL 60 E ELY 45 SSW EKO 45 NNW WMC 45 NNE 4LW 50 E SLE 15
   ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB...SRN IA...NW
   IL...FAR NRN MO AND FAR NE KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE KS...ERN
   NEB...IA...NRN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SE WI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL
   PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
   LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
   STATES...
   
   ...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY
   TODAY...
   
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
   A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WITH LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING ERN NEB AND SRN
   IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE KC AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE
   COMES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUNCH EWD...SPREADING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SETUP A
   FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN IA AND NRN MO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 55 TO 65 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
   LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN
   GOOD AGREEMENT BACKING SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN MO AND
   SERN IA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
   (0-3 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER
   INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE BACKED
   SFC FLOW WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH EVEN A
   VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
   
   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD...A GRADUAL TRANSITION
   TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
   SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE
   EVENING. A SWATH OF VERY HIGH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
   RISK AREA CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A VERY LARGE
   HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS WRN IA/ERN NEB AND KS AS A PLUME
   OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUNCHES EWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN MCS FEEDS OFF
   OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE
   TONIGHT.
   
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
   
   A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
   EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
   FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
   STATES BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
   (MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) AND 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
   BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0
   C/KM BY 21Z. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
   WARM FRONTAL SFC BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ERN NY INTO MA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   
   ...OH AND TN VALLEY...
   
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
   MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 40 KT AND
   THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. VEERED SFC WINDS
   AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE
   OR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS
   EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1236Z, RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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