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Jun 2, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 2 12:34:08 UTC 2005  (Print Version)
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 021231
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIC AKO
   30 NW IML LBF HSI HUT END 45 NNE CSM GAG LBL LIC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
   INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM 40
   E SJT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 40
   NW EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 35 WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 JMS 60 N
   DVL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
   CEW 30 N DHN 20 NW LGC 15 NNE ATL 15 WNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 10 SE
   MLB 20 S FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CDR 60 NE CDR 30
   ENE PHP 45 WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 15 N
   EVW 40 NNE VEL 25 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 65 SW GDP 30 S ROW 40
   SSW CVS 50 E TCC 20 W DHT 30 SE TAD 20 WNW RTN 15 ENE SAF 20 NW ONM
   35 WNW SVC 30 S SOW 30 NNW SOW 50 WSW GUP 30 N GUP 10 S FMN 10 ESE
   CEZ 20 S 4BL 40 N PGA 25 SSE P38 30 ESE U31 25 E U31 70 SW BOI 35
   ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 25 ESE DLN 10 SSW LVM 40 WNW 3HT 50 WSW GTF 40 E
   GEG 50 SE 4OM 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 45 SSE RST
   30 S ALO 10 ENE SZL 30 ESE SGF 20 N HOT 15 N ELD 20 SW GLH 35 S JBR
   25 WNW MDH BMG 40 NW LUK 30 SSW 5I3 45 E DAN 35 ESE ECG ...CONT...
   HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW ALB 20 W ART ...CONT... 25 NNE GLS 45 ESE CLL
   35 SSW AUS 30 NW LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NEB...AND NORTHWEST
   OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX INTO THE ERN
   DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...
   
   ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE FROM BAJA CA INTO PARTS OF NM/WEST TX BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THESE
   FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK...
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME
   WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST
   KS...CURVING WESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST
   OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  RATHER STRONG CAPPING
   IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO BY AROUND 21Z.  THIS WILL
   BE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WITH HEIGHT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
   PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE
   INTO SOUTHWEST KS...AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB.  GREATER
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
   THESE AREAS SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   EVENING AS STORMS AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN KS AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
   OK.
   
   ...OK/TX DRYLINE...
   SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WEST OF THE DRYLINE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.  MORNING WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
   VORT MAX OVER WESTERN NM WHICH MAY APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND WEAK
   UVVS AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST
   TX.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP WOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEB. 
   THESE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
   CO.  STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED...BUT MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
   DAY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEB.  DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
   NEB/SD/ND/MN.  MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND RATHER STRONG
   SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER MS.  THIS
   TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. 
   A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE
   THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
   70F...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LACK OF A
   CAP AND BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM AL ACROSS GA/SC AND
   NORTH FL.  A FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
   OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/02/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1321Z (6:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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