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May 24, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 12:28:07 UTC 2005  (Print Version)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241225
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
   9V9 20 NNW FSD 20 SSW SUX LNK 15 ESE CNU 25 SE UMN 50 NNE GLH 45 NNE
   JAN LUL GPT 15 N HUM 30 WNW ESF 30 WNW TXK 35 SW MLC 10 WNW CDS 35
   NE TCC 45 SE RTN 20 SW TAD 20 S FCL 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 WSW 9V9.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 45 ENE LFK 45 NW
   TYR 15 E MWL 20 SSE ABI 55 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 W MRF 25 NW
   CNM 60 ENE 4CR 25 NNW LVS 35 W ALS 35 SW MTJ 35 W GJT 50 SW CAG 45
   NE CAG 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE
   BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 50 W SAD 55 WNW SAD 25 SW SOW
   SOW 45 ESE SOW 50 ENE SAD 70 SSW DMN ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 SSE
   DLH 30 SW STC 50 NW LWD 25 NE GWO 35 SSW SEM 20 N MGR 20 NE SSI
   ...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 WNW FLO 40 S ROA MGW 15 ENE AOO 25 SSE CXY
   35 SSW WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SEWD TO
   LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ANCHORED BY UPPER
   HIGH EASTERN CANADA.  UPPER LOW CONTINUES ALONG NERN COAST WITH AN
   IMPULSE ROTATING SEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. UPPER HIGH
   OVER SWRN U.S. BEING SLOWLY SUPPRESSED SWD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE TO
   THE S OF UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.  NWLY FLOW PREVAILS
   FROM HIGH PLAINS TO SERN STATES UNDER THIS UPPER AIR REGIME.
   
   AT THE SURFACE E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS SRN GA TO
   CENTRAL AL AND THEN INTO NWRN AR WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTFLOW FROM
   THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  ADDITIONALLY A COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO SRN WY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN
   HIGH PLAINS.
   
   COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT PLAINS MCS STILL MOVING SEWD ACROSS OK
   INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   GFS/NAM IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A REPEAT OF MONDAYS UPSLOPE HIGH
   PLAINS SEVERE SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  IT WILL TAKE MOST OF DAY
   TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE
   STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR
   INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB. A LITTLE
   STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON MONDAY
   AS WESTERLIES ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER S WITH FLATTENING OF
   SWRN UPPER HIGH.  THUS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR  VERY LARGE HAIL
   AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP BY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.  AGAIN CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN
   OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE SEWD TRACK THAN
   CURRENT ONE.  THIS WOULD KEEP PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM WRN KS INTO
   WRN OK AND POSSIBLY ERN TX PANHANDLE.  WITH MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
   WITH SUPERCELLS AND THEN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING
   EVENING WHEN A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AS MCS DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES
   SEWD.
   
   CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS APPEARS TO BE DECAYING WITH A PRONOUNCED MVC
   NOTED ON COMPOSITE RADAR.  THIS MCV LIKELY NOT TO DIRECTLY LEAD TO
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
   
   
   HOWEVER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
   PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SEWD IN AXIS OF HIGH
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD
   ALONG ERN GULF COAST. SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE MORE
   DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN OVER PLAINS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   AS VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
   ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY SERN
   VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND
   BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL.
   
   ...E COAST OF CENTRAL FL...
   S OF FRONTAL ZONE WLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAIN FOR A FEW
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN LOCALLY
   ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG COULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE..PRIMARILY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1409Z (7:09AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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