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May 25, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 25 12:30:24 UTC 2005  (Print Version)
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   SPC AC 251227
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005
   
   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
   BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 SE AUS 30 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE
   SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS 45 S LAA 15 SSE OKC 20 W PRX 45 NNE TYR 25
   ESE SHV 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
   MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG TCS 30 ESE
   GNT 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW
   4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE
   MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 40 ENE CNU 25 NE HOT 40 N JAN 30 SSE CEW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT
   20 ESE HDO 60 SE DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S FLORIDA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NA WITH A
   DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NCENTRAL U.S.  THE
   LOW OFF THE NERN COAST WILL PERSIST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
   SHIFT OFF TO THE NE. VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES EWD ACROSS NRN
   PLAINS WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER MN TODAY. THIS LOW
   WILL THEN MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY EARLY THU AS A RATHER
   STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM VICINITY MN/DAKOTA BORDER SWWD INTO
   NERN CO CONTINUES E AND S...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
   
   OVERNIGHT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SURFACE
   BOUNDARY SWD THRU WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST A FRONTAL SYSTEM
   EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SERN OK TO GULF COAST SRN MS THEN ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   WITH THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD
   FRONT...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHIFTED TO
   THE S OF PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.  UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO E SLOPES OF SRN ROCKIES.  WITH
   GENERALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7-8C/KM PERSISTING EWD
   ACROSS TX...AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/ERN NM
   BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
   FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  WHILE TORNADO
   THREAT IS LOW...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
   WITH ANY ROTATING STORM.
   
   ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EWD ACROSS TX AS AIRMASS
   BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST A WEAK CAP. 
   INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ON BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION THAT WILL WORK SWD INTO N TX AND LA.
   
   SHEAR GENERALLY SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT MULTI-CELLULAR WILL BE THE
   DOMINATE STORM MODE FROM CENTRAL TX SEWD.
   
   ...SRN FL...
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD CENTRAL FL.  IN THE
   MEANTIME INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON SRN FL. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG S OF
   FRONT AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS WILL
   RESULT IN SOME HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY
   VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE.
   
   ..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/25/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1412Z (7:12AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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