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May 22, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 22 16:30:14 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES
   EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   ACROSS SC...
   
   ...ALONG/JUST WEST OF ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
   DEEP...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH STRONGEST ENERGY NOW
   APPROACHING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. TODAY.  DEEP SLY FLOW AND
   INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER A
   LARGE PART OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL LIMIT
   HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER THESE REGIONS.  APPEARS JUST EAST OF
   THIS CLOUD SHIELD...INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HEATING WILL ALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   TO DEVELOP UNDER MOISTENING MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80F
   OVER WRN CO...WITH FURTHER HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. 
   THUS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SELY WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE
   BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE PAST
   COUPLE DAYS FROM SERN MT INTO ERN NM.  IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS
   AND SSWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS FAR SOUTH
   AS ERN NM.  THUS...INCREASING MLCAPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
   PERSISTING EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY
   EVENING WHERE RUC DEVELOPS 40 KT SSELY LLJ BY 00Z.  ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES
   THIS EVENING.  OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND SMALL
   MCSS APPEARS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTO WRN KS/WRN
   NEB ALONG NOSE OF STRONGER SLY LLJ.
   
   ...FAR ERN ORE/ERN WA INTO WRN MT...
   THIN CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF WRN ID
   INTO FAR NERN ORE THIS MORNING.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER
   THIS REGION UNDER 45 KT SLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND MID LEVELS WILL COOL
   UNDER -16C H5 THERMAL TROUGH.  THUS...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
   ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT TODAY.
   
   ...SERN KS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...
   REFERENCE SWOMCD 932 FOR SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS REGION.  MUCH
   STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF
   SLOW MOVING MCV NOW OVER S-CENTRAL KS. EXPECT WEAKLY SHEARED
   CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AND REMAIN
   FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MCV AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SERN
   KS INTO SWRN MO.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ...TN INTO SC...
   SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION AND SHOULD FOCUS
   THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS CAP WEAKENS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
   A COUPLE DAYS NOW.  HOWEVER...APPEARS WEAKER SHEAR WILL LIMIT
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE MID SOUTH AND TN RIVER
   VALLEY.  SHEAR REMAINS STRONGER ALONG PORTION OF THE FRONT
   PERSISTING ACROSS SC...WHERE ERODING CLOUDS ARE NOW SUPPORTING
   ROBUST HEATING ONCE AGAIN.  OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LESS THAN THE PAST
   TWO DAYS...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL FAVOR A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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