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May 23, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 23 16:24:12 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1630Z Tornado Prob Outlook SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 231620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 45+ KT SSWLY MID
   LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS TODAY. 
   SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD A MODEST LATE-MAY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CURRENT
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS SERN SD THIS
   MORNING.  STRONG HEATING WILL BE COMMON TODAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
   SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING W-E ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SUPPORT
   TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F INTO NEB/SD.  HEATING AND MID LEVEL DRY
   INTRUSION WILL SUPPORT STRONG MIXING/DRYING ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW
   LEVEL MOIST AXIS...THOUGH MORNING UA ANALYSES/SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR 60-65F SURFACE
   DEW POINTS TO SURVIVE DEEP MIXING ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN SD.  THIS
   WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AROUND
   20-21Z ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SD INTO NEB/FAR NRN KS. 
   SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
   POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES...AS REGION IS PLACED UNDER 35-40 KT SLY
   LLJ.  LARGE SURFACE T/TD SPREADS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY HIGH
   CLOUD BASES/LCLS AND MAY INHIBIT PERSISTENT TORNADO THREAT WITH
   DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   PREVAILING SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE
   SQUALL LINES/CLUSTERS AND SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  MORE
   ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/MCSS WILL LIKELY TURN MORE ESEWD AFTER DARK AND
   SPREAD ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT INTO MORE OF WRN IA/MO AND SRN/ERN KS.
    
   
   STRONG ASCENT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR LOW CENTER/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER WRN HALF OF ND INTO FAR NERN MT
   PRIOR TO 21Z.  MLCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL LOW AND ALONG NWRN PORTION OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE AXIS. HOWEVER...MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STRONG ASCENT
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   WRN ND/FAR NERN MT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...PAC NW EAST OF THE CASCADES...
   WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
   MOVES NNEWD ACROSS ORE AND WA TODAY.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   MAY LIMIT HEATING/OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ORE/WA. 
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL OCCUR FOR MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
   GENERAL INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OVERALL SETUP APPEARS
   MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1643Z (9:43AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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