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May 24, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 24 12:54:13 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1300Z Wind prob outlook SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241251
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VLY SW INTO ERN
   PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NE SD UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY THIS
   PERIOD AS DEEP E PACIFIC LOW EDGES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WA CST.  THE SD
   LOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...TURN SLIGHTLY S OF E WITH TIME AS /1/ SYSTEM
   HAS PASSED HI PLNS RIDGE AXIS AND /2/ WNWLY JET STREAK NOW OVER THE
   NEB PANHANDLE WILL DRIVE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE
    ESEWD.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...PACIFIC OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT ARCING S AND SW FROM
   DAKS/MN SURFACE LOW SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY SE INTO THE MID MS VLY
   TODAY/TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE SRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EDGE
   ONLY SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS WRN MO/KS...AND LIKELY WILL DEVOLVE INTO A
   WINDSHIFT LINE AS A NEW THERMAL SURGE DEVELOPS FARTHER N IN RESPONSE
   TO NEB JET STREAK.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK N/S WARM FRONT NOW IN CNTRL/ERN
   MO SHOULD MOVE E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING CNTRL OH BY 12Z
   THURSDAY.
   
   ...ERN IA/SW WI/NW IL...
   CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING'S SQUALL LINE SHOULD
   CLEAR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN WI/EXTREME SE MN/ERN IA AND NW IL
   LATER THIS MORNING.  GIVEN CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   DISTRIBUTION...AND 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS WRN MO/IA...SETUP SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 2000 J
   PER KG/ NEWD INTO MDT RISK AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT.
   
   CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
   50+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK...SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR STORM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WRN WI.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   THEN DEVELOP S ALONG FRONT INTO ERN IA/NW IL.  LINEAR
   FORCING...MODERATE TO STRONG MEAN FLOW AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
   SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL...SIMILAR TO THOSE IN CNTRL NEB
   YESTERDAY...FAIRLY  QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE
   PRODUCING A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WIND/HAIL.  BEFORE MERGING...
   INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN
   EXPECTED DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE /AVERAGE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/.
   
   THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE REMAINDER OF WI AND NRN
   IL EARLY TONIGHT.  THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY GIVEN
   WEAKER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN IL WSW INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND PARTS OF AR/OK...
   SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT/WINDSHIFT LINE
   SHOULD RESULT IN A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS OVER
   PARTS OF MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG ROUGHLY THE I-70 AND I-44
   CORRIDORS FROM NEAR STL TO COU/SGF.  SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE /UP TO 3000
   J PER KG/ SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION BENEATH 35-40 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF NEB JET.  HIGH LEVEL
   WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30
   KTS/ AND ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO INITIATING BOUNDARY.
   
   STORMS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH
   WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THEIR EARLY STAGES OF
   DEVELOPMENT.  BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE
   OR MORE ELONGATED CLUSTERS THAT...WHILE CONTAINING REMNANT EMBEDDED
   CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD POSE A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR HIGH-END SEVERE.
    THE CLUSTERS COULD EXHIBIT BOTH BACKBUILDING/ REGENERATIVE
   TENDENCIES SWWD INTO AR/OK...AND FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENTS EWD
   INTO IL/IND LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/24/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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