Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage
NOAA's National Weather Service
  Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
 


 

May 26, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 26 06:40:25 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1200Z Tornado Prob Outlook SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260637
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/TN VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY AS ONE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE MOVES FROM
   THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
   WILL SEPARATE THE TWO TROUGHS AND MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
   MIDWEST AND DEEP SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOT AND VERY
   UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY
   WHERE A DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXIST. EARLY TODAY...THE FRONT
   ORIGINATING WITH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TROUGH...WILL EXTEND SWWD
   ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...THEN WWD TO THE TN VALLEY...AND NWWD INTO
   THE PLAINS. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW WILL LOCALLY
   REINFORCE THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE PLAINS.
   
   AS ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
   THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY
   WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN
   VALLEY TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AS WRN U.S. TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND
   LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE FRONTAL ZONE
   OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD FROM KS TO THE CNTRL/NRN
   PLAINS...AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT
   ON INCREASING INSTABILITY TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN...AND POSSIBLY
   ENHANCE...CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASING
   INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SWD ACROSS
   ERN PA AND NJ. FROM DELMARVA AREA SWD ACROSS THE VA/NC
   CAPES...GREATER MOISTURE AND LATER ARRIVAL OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
   DESTABILIZATION THESE AREAS. SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED BUT
   SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP ON STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION... AT
   LEAST INITIALLY...AND POSSIBLE SEA/BAY/SOUND BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY
   RESULT IN SLIGHTLY GREATER SUPERCELL/LARGE HAIL THREAT...IN ADDITION
   TO DAMAGING WINDS FROM POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS
   WILL STRENGTHEN LEE-TROUGHING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   TODAY. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ROTATING NEWD OUT OF
   THE LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH ARE SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE AND WILL
   AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEAR TO BE GREATEST FROM NERN
   CO NWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LEE-SIDE SURFACE
   LOWS MAY FURTHER FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
   EWD/NEWD INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND
   HIGH WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS GENERALLY
   NEWD THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   NEAR ANY SURFACE LOW AND/OR LEE TROUGH/RETREATING WARM FRONT
   INTERSECTION. AN MCS OR TWO MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE
   EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER NEB...AND
   PERHAPS ACROSS ND WHERE GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONGER QG FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS SERN CO SOUTH TO BIG BEND...
   LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL ALSO SPUR GENERALLY HIGH-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN CO SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE BY AFTERNOON. WEAKER
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS MORE
   ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS SUPERCELL STORMS
   WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   DOWNBURST WINDS.
   
   ...TN VALLEY ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
   STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
   ZONE...BUT BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT AND STOUT CAPPING INVERSION. THERE
   IS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE REGION GIVEN ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS KS AND SWRN
   MO. 
   
   FAVORABLE ORIENTATION/FORCING FROM MCS OUTFLOWS AND RESIDUAL
   FRONT...COUPLED WITH LOCALLY INTENSE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM TN
   SEWD ACROSS SC SHOULD OVERCOME CAP THESE AREAS TO RESULT IN
   POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THIS CONVECTION.
   
   HOWEVER...FROM THE MS RIVER NWWD ACROSS MO...GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR
   AND FORCING BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING MCS EVOLUTION...PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER
   FORECAST OVER THIS REGION AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...SOUTH FL...
   LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY COINCIDE
   WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN
   FL. STORMS DEVELOPING ON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE
   KEYS...MAY PERSIST OR BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO...OR A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. OVERALL POTENTIAL DOES
   NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 05/26/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1201Z (5:01AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 26, 2006
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities