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May 28, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 28 16:32:10 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1630Z Tornado Prob Outlook SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
   TX...
   
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS
   UT.  THIS FEATURE WILL SURGE INTO CO/WY THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR OF
   SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM CO INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE PERIOD. 
   HOWEVER...VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
   WARM SECTOR.  THIS WILL FOCUS GREATEST THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
   THE NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...AND IN THE HIGH
   PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING WILL AID CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION.
   
   ...NORTHERN ND/MN...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING IN LOW/MID
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND NORTHERN MN...INTO
   SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
   BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL ND INTO MN WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. 
   INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION OVER THIS REGION WILL LIMIT AREAL
   COVERAGE OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
   NEAR 90F WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  LOW AND MID
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG...BUT SOME VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ...WY/NEB/SD/ND/MN...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WY
   AND WESTERN SD/NEB...RESULTING IN NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW/MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING.  THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION...WEST OF PRIMARY MOISTURE
   GRADIENT.  THESE HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
   AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE
   PLUME BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN SD/NEB...WHERE FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ND AND WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT.  LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...WEST TX/OK...
   ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG
   THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX AND WESTERN OK.  ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...ALTHOUGH
   DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER FORECAST SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGEST LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN YESTERDAY. 
   HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
   THREAT.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA...
   LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE
   MIDDLE TX GULF COAST.  THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG COAST. 
   HIGH CAPE VALUES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT PULSE-TYPE
   SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ...GA/FL...
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN AL ALONG THE FL PENINSULA
   TODAY. AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
   NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS
   ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS MOST
   LIKELY.  HOWEVER...SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND REMNANT WEAK COLD
   FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET-MICROBURSTS
   AND HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   ..HART/LEVIT.. 05/28/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1924Z (12:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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