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May 30, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 30 16:30:14 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 301627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
   EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BROAD/FLAT TROUGH
   OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND.  WIDESPREAD
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   TODAY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AND
   NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTH FL. MANY OF
   THESE  AREAS WILL HAVE A RISK OF VERY ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
   STORMS.  THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   ...CO/NM/KS/OK/TX...
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
   MAINTAINED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/WEST TX...WITH 20-30 KNOT 500MB
   FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO
   SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THIS REGION...TRANSPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
   WESTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM/CO. 
   STRONG HEATING IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT
   CAPE AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ENHANCED UPSLOPE
   NEAR THE PALMER/RATON RIDGES MAY AID DEVELOPMENT.  OTHER HIGH-BASED
   STORMS ARE LIKELY IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHWARD INTO WEST
   TX.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AND MORE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT.  THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AFTER
   DARK...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KS WHERE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE ANTICIPATED.  MCS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS
   AND NORTHWEST OK.
   
   ...CO/WY...
   WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TODAY INTO NORTHEAST CO
   AND EASTERN WY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND FULL SUNSHINE. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH MUCAPE AROUND
   500 J/KG.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
   FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK HILLS...AND
   SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK
   OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   RATHER ISOLATED.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS MUCH OF IA/WI/MI THIS MORNING.  THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
   TRACKS FROM IA ACROSS WI.  THREAT OF IS0LATED SEVERE STORMS IS
   EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL AND SOUTHERN WI. 
   PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1029 FOR FURTHER
   DETAILS.
   
   ...IL/IN/KY/TN/AL...
   PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST TWO DAYS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. 
   MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL LEAD TO
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY
   WEAK...SUGGESTING MULTICELL OR PULSE-TYPE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
   POSSIBLE.  WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY
   THREATS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...NY/PA/NJ...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKET OF VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR REMAINING ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA.  EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH 500MB WIND SPEEDS
   FORECAST TO BE ONLY 5-10 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
   WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES /19C AT 850MB/ SUGGESTS A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 
   OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK
   SHEAR...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...FL...
   DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD FOCUS
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SEA-BREEZE
   TODAY. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED TODAY.
   
   ..HART/GRAMS.. 05/30/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1633Z (9:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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