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May 31, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 31 16:12:16 UTC 2006  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1630Z Hail prob outlook SPC Day1 1630Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 311609
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
   
   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD AND MN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
   NY/VT...
   
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
   DOMINANT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH.  PRIMARY AREAS OF STRONG
   CONVECTION TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
   ROCKIES...PARTS OF MN/DAKOTAS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...AND ALONG AXIS FROM MID MS VALLEY INTO VT.
   
   ...CO/NM FRONT RANGE...
   EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER EASTERN CO/NM. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH ARE
   EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR MASS
   TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND MLCAPE
   VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
   FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   RATHER WEAK.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS AND PARTS
   OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...MN/DAKOTAS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD.  THIS
   FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. 
   SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
   AREA...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S.  HOWEVER...FORCING
   FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER TODAY
   AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ...VT/NY...
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WITH
   WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.  WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
   ONTARIO...WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK.  HOWEVER...STRONG
   HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...ALONG WITH 500MB
   TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AND LEAD TO
   SCATTERED STORMS.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
   CELLS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
   SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST
   LOWER MI.  POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   FRONT...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG
   STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
   RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.
   
   ..HART/GRAMS.. 05/31/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1616Z (9:16AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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