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May 23, 2007 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 23 05:38:15 UTC 2007  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day 1 1200Z Wind prob outlook SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230531
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...NWRN OK AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWWD
   INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD
   THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD TODAY
   THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
   MANITOBA BY THURSDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
   TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION TODAY...EMERGING INTO
   THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD FROM ERN ND INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
   WHILE SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES OVER SERN CO INTO NERN NM
   LATER TODAY.  WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ASSUME A SLOW EWD
   PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...THIS
   BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA
   SWWD INTO CNTRL KS.  SRN HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS MAY CAUSE WRN
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE
   NRN TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MID MO VALLEY...
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
   PERIOD ALONG FRONT...LARGELY DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  CLOUDS
   AND/OR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING
   DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA
   MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED FRONT.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEARS /EBS/ OF 30-40 KT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
   EVOLVE INTO MORE A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH TIME WITH THE HAIL/WIND
   THREAT CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   ...KS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   22/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INDICATE THAT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS OF 12-15 G/KG OBSERVED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TX/OK. 
   HOWEVER...OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO SRN HIGH
   PLAINS SHOWED GENERALLY 6.5-7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
   WILL TEMPER THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY TODAY. 
   NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME
   HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG BY
   LATE AFTERNOON S OF FRONT.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG FRONT BY MID
   TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN KS THE OK AND NRN TX
   PNHDLS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AT THIS TIME OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM...PRIOR TO
   MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ALONG STATIONARY OR RETREATING FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY.
   
   THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EBS OF 45-55 KT/ WILL EXIST
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EBS OF GENERALLY
   30-40 KT FORECAST FARTHER E ALONG FRONT OVER CNTRL KS.  
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  LARGE HAIL /SOME
   SIGNIFICANT/ AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.  POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST THIS EVENING /00-03Z/ WITH ANY MATURE
   SUPERCELLS AS 0-1 KM SRH INCREASES TO 200-300 M2/S2.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH
   WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK.
   
   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 05/23/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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