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Jun 1, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 1 12:54:21 UTC 2008  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
   
   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE
   CAROLINAS/GA W AND NW THROUGH THE TN VLY AND OZARKS INTO THE CNTRL
   HI PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS E
   PACIFIC LOW EDGES E INTO WA AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N/E FROM THE
   RCKYS/HI PLNS INTO THE CNTRL PLNS.  IN THE EAST...BROAD AREA OF
   MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH MAIN TROUGH MOVING FROM
   THE ERN GRT LKS/OH VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO OFF THE ERN SEABOARD
   BY 12Z MONDAY.
   
   SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE TOPPING CREST OF UPR RIDGE OVER ERN
   CO ATTM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ESE INTO AR BY EVENING AND
   CONTINUE SE INTO AL AND THE NERN GULF EARLY MONDAY.  BACK WEST...A
   SEPARATE WAVE NOW OVER CA EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF WA UPR LOW
   SHOULD REACH THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE ENE
   INTO THE NRN PLNS EARLY MONDAY.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED S/SE ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF THE U.S. YESTERDAY SHOULD SETTLE FARTHER SE ACROSS THE TN
   VLY...WHILE WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TODAY FROM NRN
   AR INTO NRN OK.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT
   OVER KS AND ERN CO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS LEE TROUGH
   STRENGTHENS OVER THE NRN HI PLNS AHEAD OF CA IMPULSE.
   
   ...SRN KS/NRN OK ESE INTO SRN MO/AR AND THE TN VLY...
   DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ESE FROM THE KS/OK BORDER AREA INTO
   THE TN VLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SEAT OF PERIODIC STRONG STORM/MCS
   DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.  THE CLUSTER NOW OVER S CNTRL KS APPEARS TO
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPR IMPULSE IN CO.  THE MCS
   SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO ERN OK AND PERHAPS WRN AR BY MIDDAY...WITH
   WEAKENING EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES BEYOND AXIS OF LLJ IN OK.
   
   SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD
   LEAD TO A NEW ROUND OF STORMS OVER PARTS OF AR AND THE TN VLY LATER
   TODAY.  WITH THE STORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF 40-50 KT
   WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND WITH STRONG HEATING/RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE
   TO BOOST INSTABILITY...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS.  MODEST
   LOW-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT PRIMARY TSTM MODE SHOULD BE
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWS WITH DMGG WIND/HAIL.  NEVERTHELESS...ISOLD
   TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.  THESE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY INVOF ANY MCV
   CIRCULATIONS BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND/OR WITH ANY STORMS MOVING
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO WNWLY MEAN
   FLOW.
   
   ...CNTRL HI PLNS E INTO PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS AND MO...
   SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE HI PLNS TODAY AS THE LEE
   TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND STALLED W-E FRONT BEGINS TO REDEVELOP NWD
   INTO KS.  ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING SHOULD YIELD LWR-MID
   50S F DEW POINTS OVER ERN CO...ERN WY...WRN NEB...AND SW SD BY
   AFTN...WITH LOW-MID 60S POSSIBLE INTO FAR ERN CO TONIGHT.
   
   AS HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE WRN IMPULSE SPREAD EWD...THE DEEPENING
   UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR TSTM INITIATION.  SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER STRONGLY WITH
   HEIGHT TO WLY AT MID LVLS...YIELDING 50+ KT DEEP SHEAR. 
   THUS...EXPECT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES.  INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
   EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO MCSS
   THAT WILL MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP E INTO PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN/CNTRL
   NEB...WRN KS...AND PERHAPS NW OK.  THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD FAVOR
   REGION ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN CO INTO THE CNTRL PLNS...WHERE
   A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/BOWS WITH LARGE
   HAIL/DMGG WIND MAY PERSIST.  FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG
   TO SVR STORMS WITH HAIL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER SE
   KS/SW MO...AS STRENGTHENING LLJ TAPS RESERVOIR OF RICH MOISTURE IN
   OK/AR.
   
   ...MS/AL/GA/FL AND CAROLINAS...
   MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SFC HEATING IN BASE OF ERN STATES
   TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT
   AND CSTL PLN OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA TODAY.  STORMS MAY FOCUS ALONG
   OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS IN THE UPR TN VLY/SRN APLCNS...ALONG LEE
   TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SWD INTO
   CNTRL FL.  THE STRONGEST MEAN FLOW WILL EXIST FROM NRN/CNTRL GA/SC
   NWD.  THERE...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED...WITH HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS.  FARTHER S...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST FL SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MORE PULSE IN NATURE...BUT MAY STILL YIELD ISOLD
   DMGG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 06/01/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1305Z (6:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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