Apr 16, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 16 16:37:14 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090416 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090416 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090416 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090416 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 161632
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009
   
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
   UT/AZ...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
   RESULTED IN SOME MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  50S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW EVIDENT AS FAR
   NORTH AS THE TX PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OK...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
   INTO WESTERN KS BY THIS EVENING.  A RATHER STRONG DRYLINE IS LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO WEST TX...WHICH
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
   TODAY.
   
   ...NEB/KS/OK EARLY AFTERNOON...
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
   MORNING FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHEAST
   NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY IS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
   AND LIFT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MUCAPE.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   HAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.  REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 481 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   
   ...EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO ARE HELPING TO
   SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION.  PRIMARY DRYLINE WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN CO...BUT BACKED WINDS NEAR SURFACE LOW MAY
   WRAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WESTWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   NEAR THE DRYLINE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO.  THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE
   EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK.
   
   ...OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST TX...
   STRONG HEATING OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE
   DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.  MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
   AGREEMENT OF STORMS BY 00Z FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO SOUTH OF AMA...WITH
   DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ENTIRE AXIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THOSE STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE MAY ALSO
   POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
   UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS BY 06Z AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   THE HILL COUNTRY.
   
   ..HART/GARNER.. 04/16/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z