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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 10, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 10 12:35:20 UTC 2010  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

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SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical
  
  
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 101233
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   CENTRAL/NE OK AND SE KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN
   KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   
   ...A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS...
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO MO OVERNIGHT...
   RAPID CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
   PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EWD
   TO CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES ENEWD TO THE
   MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
   AIR MASS /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM
   NW/N CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL AND NRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
   MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND IN RESPONSE TO EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS
   SW/S CENTRAL KS.  THE MOST FAVORABLE PHASING OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL/NE OK...AND THE ADJACENT
   BORDER COUNTIES IN KS.  OVERNIGHT...THE BELT OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD OVER MO AT A FASTER RATE THAN THE LOW
   LEVELS WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE
   IN THE SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK LATER TONIGHT.
   
   DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 18-20Z IN SW KS NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET. 
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FARTHER SE ALONG THE SRN KS/NRN OK
   DRYLINE AROUND 21-22Z...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SWD INTO
   CENTRAL OK AND NW TX CLOSER TO 22-00Z.  THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MID-UPPER JET CORE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY
   TAKE UP TO AN HOUR OR SO TO MATURE.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SRH OF
   400-600 M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND MLCAPE OF
   2000-3500 J/KG ALL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACK
   TORNADOES IN THE MDT-HIGH RISK AREAS.  THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE FROM ABOUT 22-02Z IN OK/SE KS...WITH A
   GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO.
   
   POTENTIAL CONCERNS WILL BE THE LATE ARRIVAL AND NARROW WIDTH OF THE
   WARM SECTOR COMPARED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAST
   STORM MOTIONS.  A COMPARISON OF EXPECTED 45-50 KT STORM MOTIONS WITH
   WARM SECTOR WIDTH/PROGRESSION SUGGESTS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR
   SUPERCELLS TO MATURE AND REMAIN WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SRN/SERN KS AND NRN/NERN OK THIS EVENING.
   STILL...IT APPEARS THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
   LONG TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FOR A FEW HOURS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCLUDING THE WICHITA...TULSA...AND
   OKLAHOMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/10/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1503Z (8:03AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
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Page last modified: May 10, 2010
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