Ingredients-based Forecasting Approach
What ingredients are necessary in order for the given forecast "issue" to occur?
Forecast Issue - Thunderstorm -- a convective storm associated with a cumulonimbus cloud producing lightning.
3. Source of parcel lift
Forecast Issue - Severe Thunderstorm -- a thunderstorm that produces (a) straight-line wind gusts of 50 knots (57 mph) or stronger; and/or (b) hail 1 inch in diameter or larger; and/or (c) a tornado of any intensity.
1. Magnitude of Instability-related Vertical Motion
2. Magnitude of Shear-induced Vertical Motion
3. Factors related to Persistence of Vertical Motion
4. Wind shear Factors related to inducement of rotation