Meteorology 302.01, Spring 2004
Class notes for May 7, 2004
Jennifer Lee
Please let me know you got this e-mail
Assignments
Vasquez: Chp 3, pp. 61-67; Chp 5; Chp 6, 128-139 (this completes Vasquez
House keeping
á Quick
review of the dates for the final. Dates can be see on the class website
for our class it will be Wednesday 19th of May from 12:10 to 1:00pm
How to use forecast information and chaos theory
Under spiffy
forecasts (NCEP & HPC loop page) we looked to the dates of when
Dr. Monteverdi
is going out to the great plains
( Note that these models are not as
technical as European models because this information if free to the
public, while in Europe they might have to pay for the same information
we get )
Looked at this mornings jet stream and the
Loop: 500mb forecast
These
models as taken at six hour intervals
We
went over the Chaos Theory (Greater error
happens over 2 to 3 day periods)
Spaghetti
chart
* the orange colors represent the last annalists
* the red colors represent the error or deviations
that may occur
* the deviations and the last analysis are most
predictable when the lines (the MB) are close together
Single and
multi-cell storms
á Horizontal wind sheer the change in winds when you move
horizontally
á Vertical wind sheer the change in winds
when you move vertically
á Down drifts and cold air cools the ground
thus it does not allow thunderstorms to grow and eventually kills them
á Multi-cell storms are created by great
vertical wind sheer
á Multi cells have larger hail because the
updraft allows hail time to grow
á In multi cell storms that drift toward the
north east can have several updrafts though one storm may die of another
maybe closely behind it
á The chief danger areas of thunderstorms
are area that have high winds and rain because several storms could grow
and die around the facility
á New Vocabulary Overshooting Top this can
be seen when a updraft over shoots a cuminbus cloud up and above its
anvil thus its name, over shooting top
á A super cell thunderstorm can be
reportedly up to 100 miles long with winds up to 100 knots
á Our storm are usually 10miles in diameter
á We can usually use the speed of updraft to
calculate the size of hail