METR 403

Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Course
Schedule
Prof. John Monteverdi
Dept. of Geosciences
SFSU, Spring 2004


Date Tentative Event/Assignment Week
August 26
1
August 30
  • Primitive Equations (Conceptual Review)
  • QG Height Tendency Equation (Conceptual Review)
  • Reading Assignments:

    In Textbooks for Next 10 days:

    Bluestein, Chapter 1 and Chapter 2, pp. 32-39, 57-69
    Djuric, pp. 29-41
    Vasquez (WxFcstHandbook) Chp 1-3

    For Thursday, 2 September, read (distributed in class):

    Augulis, Richard P., 1978: Man still most important…but for how long? Preprints, Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis and Aviation Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD

    Ramage, Colin S., 1978: Bring back analysis. Preprints, Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis and Aviation Meteorology, Silver Spring, MD
  • Homework 1 (Due Tuesday 7 September)
2
September 6 Reading Assignments:

Bluestein, 84-91, 181-190
Djuric, Fig 6-1; p 89, Appendix I

QG Height Tendency Equation (Conceptual Review)

Some Examples:

Homework 2 (Due Thursday 16 September)

Lab 2 (Vertical Consistency and Analysis of Thickness)

3
September 13 Natural Coordinate System: Horizontal Wind Vector and Horizontal Equation of Motion

Loaded Gun Sounding

Kinematics of the Pressure Field:

Inclass Exercise

Homework 3 -- Kinematic Help

Kinematics: Properties of the Wind Field --Translation and Divergence

Fundamental Definition of Divergence

4
September 20 Reading Assignments through Next Week:

Bluestein: pp. 19-20; 181-194; 92-99; 195-200; 219-223
Djuric Chapters 3 and 4, Chapter 6, pp. 93-96, Appendix C, H and I

Comments for Homework 1

Comments for Homework 2

Rain on Sunday

Kinematics: Properties of the Wind Field --Translation and Divergence (continued--Djuric's View): Human v. Machine Analyses

Fundamental Definition of Divergence (continued)

Graphical Subtraction Example

Homework 4

5
September 27 Reading Assignments

Vasquez: (Weather Forecasting Handbook)
Chapter 2 (Observations)
Chapter 3 (Analysis)
Chapter 7 (Barotropic Systems)
Chapter 8 (Baroclinic Systems)

Qualitatative QG-Equations

M698 Example: Evaluating Dynamics

Remember this?

NWS Terminology

Thermal Wind -- First View

Veering and Backing of the Geostrophic Wind with Height: What does it tell us? Chart used in discussion of this topic.

Vertical Consistency Handout: Baroclinic System

Pressure Tendency Equation

Homework 5

6
October 3 Laboratory 2 (continued)

Guest Professor:

Dr. Warren Blier

Science Operations Officer, NWS WFO
San Francisco Bay Region
Adjunct Prof. of Meteorology, SFSU
Formerly, Prof. of Meteorology, UCLA

Operational Forecasting Issues:
Human v Machine, Appropriate Use of Technology, NWS as Employer of BS Students,

7
October 10 Thermal Wind

Laboratory 3

Lab 1

8
October 17 Fundamental Definition of Vorticity

October 19, 2004: Sat, Vort, Thick, 850

Analyzed VIS and Analyzed IR

Qualitatative QG-Equations

From 301: Frontal/Thickness Relation, Wave Cyclone Sequence, Occlusion/Sat/Fronts

Circulation and Vorticty: Operational Implications

Sfc Chart for 10/21/04

Homework 6

9
October 24 More on Circulation and Vorticity: The Simplified (often called "Barotropic") Equation

Midterm 1 Key

Today's eta_thick

10
November 1 Solenoid Term; Bjerkenes Circulation Theorem

Scaling of Solenoid Term

Scaling of Simplified (Barotropic) Vorticity Equation

Vorticity Patterns and Vertical Consistency in the Eta 12 h Fcst for 0000 UTC 11/4/04: Sfc, 500 mb and 300 mb

Homework 7

Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Equation

11
November 8

Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Equation

Example 11/9/04

Divergence Lab: 00 UTC 09/28/04 300 mb Conv

Lab 4

Homework 8

00 UTC 10/22/04 Sfc Chart

00 UTC 10/22/04 500 mb Chart

12
November 15 Sutcliffe-Petterssen Development Equation

Finite Difference Approximation of the Laplacian

Lab 4

Review of Thermodynamic Energy Equation and its implications for synoptic meteorology

More on the Static Stability Parameter

Lab 5 and Homework 9

13
November 22 Djuric, Chapter 8, 9, 10, 11 (up to page 194)

Snap Exercise on Thermodynamic Energy Equation: Forecasting Application

Application thermal wind concept and circulation theorem: Margules' Equation

14
November 28 Snap Exercise on QG Controls with Answer Rubric

Egads--Frontal Solenoid Interpretation

SPDE Conceptual Connection

Forecast Contest Schedule

More Discussion of Paper: SPDE Term Paper Schedule (Part A Due 12/16/04) and References

What is the reason for the vertical motion that the GFS forsees producing clouds and precipitation at "X"?

QG-Equations:

15
December 5 QG-Equations:

Frontal/Thickness Relation,

Wave Cyclone Sequence,

Occlusion/Sat/Fronts

VAD Profile of Developing Occlusion

Frontal Solenoid Interpretation

16