Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 101519
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
919 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.AVIATION...

AN UPDATE OF THE 12Z TAFS...

ETA ON TSTM COMPLEX HEADED TOWARDS METROPLEX...

FTW AT 15:40Z
AFW AT 15:50Z
DFW AT 16:15Z
DAL AT 16:25Z

CAVANAUGH


.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SURGING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING AND AS
OF 10Z EXTENDED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A KBMQ /BURNETT/...KINJ
/HILLSBORO/...KTRL /TERRELL/ LINE. THESE CLOUDS WERE PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT. CEILINGS WERE LIFR/IFR
RANGING FROM 400 TO 900 FEET. THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF FOG SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY 3-5SM BR. CEILINGS
SHOULD MOVE INTO WACO BY BY 1030Z...AND INTO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DRY LINE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR 17-18Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM AT THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF
SITES...BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRY LINE.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOWARD SUNSET /01Z/. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TOWARD/SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

58



&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES FOR SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #19. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT STORM
ACTIVITY. DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE CWA WHILE THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO FORT WORTH TO SHERMAN.
BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING.

WE EXPECT A NARROW WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ATHENS TO CORSICANA TO
NEAR AUSTIN. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWESTWARD...BUT
SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS PUSH IT INTO EAST TEXAS. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
ESTABLISHED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL
ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY.

4KM WRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHWARD TOWARD
WACO/CORSICANA/ATHENS BY 14Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO EAST TEXAS WITH THE FRONT BY 18/20Z...
TAKING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH IT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
EXPERIENCE DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING UP TO ABOUT 750 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. WE WILL
POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35
/THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC AREA AS THE RED FLAG WARNING/. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY...BUT WE EXPECT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH.

DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWER 850MB TEMPS WILL MIX
DOWNWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S /ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS/.

A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL SURGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE EXTENDED MODELS ALL SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW ROLLING ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE TIMING DIFFERS BY A DAY OR SO.
REGARDLESS...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY. WILL
CARRY 20 TO 30 PERCENTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL BETTER TIMING CAN
BE ESTABLISHED. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SCHULTZ



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35 FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. REFER
TO THE RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  44  69  46  63 /  50   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              70  41  69  44  67 /  30   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             70  42  64  41  58 /  30  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  41  67  41  64 /  60   5  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  40  65  42  61 /  50   5  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            72  45  68  45  62 /  40   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           71  43  69  43  63 /  30   5  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  44  69  45  65 /  40   5  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  40  71  43  69 /  40   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-
115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.


&&

$$





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