Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Mar 7, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 7 17:53:46 UTC 2013  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions
Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook
 
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 071712
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE
   RETURN ON INCREASING S/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SWD FROM LEE CYCLONE OVER SE CO INTO SW TX. DEWPOINTS NEAR
   50 F TO THE MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM
   THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. AS APPROACHING
   SPEED MAX OVER NM OVERSPREADS THE REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   INCREASE AND VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR
   THE DRYLINE BY 00Z AS EML ERODES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULT
   IN MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   AS COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SURGES EWD
   OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED/BROKEN
   LINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK. THESE STORMS
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
   DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DURING THE
   NIGHTTIME HOURS.
   
   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 03/07/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1931Z (11:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 07, 2013
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities