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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 7, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 7 12:46:41 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150407 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150407 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
 
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 260,487 30,918,196 Charlotte, NC...Sacramento, CA...Kansas City, MO...Fresno, CA...St. Louis, MO...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 071246

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
   MID MS VALLEY TO WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CA CENTRAL VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH OTHER SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
   INTERIOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY WLY-SWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL W OF
   ROCKIES...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY MOST
   OF ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE PAC PERTURBATION.  LATTER
   FEATURE AT 12Z WAS CENTERED ROUGHLY 100 W CAPE MENDOCINO...AND IS
   FCST TO PIVOT EWD/ONSHORE NRN CA COAST BY 18Z...CROSSING MUCH OF NV
   OVERNIGHT.  TO ITS E...MINOR/CONVECTIVELY MODULATED RIPPLES WILL
   TRAVERSE FLOW FIELD FROM GREAT PLAINS TO ATLC COAST.  ONE OF THESE
   -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM E TX TO WRN/CENTRAL
   AR -- IS POORLY TO NOT RESOLVED BY OPERATIONAL PROGS EXCEPT FOR
   EXCELLENT DEPICTION IN RR.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
   MID-SOUTH TODAY...REACHING SRN APPALACHIANS...CENTRAL AL AND
   S-CENTRAL MS BY 00Z.

   AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   ENEWD TO NRN MO BY 00Z THEN TO CENTRAL IL BY 12Z.  TO ITS E...WARM
   FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF
   LOW...DELAYED/MODULATED ON MESOSCALE BY AREAS OF CONVECTION
   INCLUDING TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/ERN MO.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SWD TO SRN KS BUT DECELERATE/STALL OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT START
   TO FALL OVER ROCKIES...AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AT SFC. 
   DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM LOW SWWD OVER WRN OK TO SERN NM
   THEN SWD INTO BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX...AND WILL MIX EWD THROUGH
   ABOUT 21Z.  BY THAT TIME...DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM OBLIQUE
   FRONTAL INTERSECTION IN SERN KS TO NEAR GOK...SPS...SJT...6R6...AND
   SWD OVER NRN COAHUILA.  MINOR EWD/MESOBETA-SCALE BULGES ARE POSSIBLE
   FROM THAT POSITION.  OUT W...LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT PRECEDING
   MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS CA TODAY...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
   MORE DISCRETE/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

   ...MID MS VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...
   EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...LOCATED S OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
   FROM AR NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY/SRN INDIANA...COMPLICATE FCST
   ACROSS THIS REGION BECAUSE THEY WILL LEAD TO DELAYED/RESTRICTED
   DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF ERN LIMB OF MRGL-RISK AREA.
    STILL...BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY AND SMALL BUT SVR AREA OF CONVECTION
   OVER ERN MO...CHANNEL OF FAVORABLE HEATING IS EXPECTED OFF ERN RIM
   OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR.  THIS SHOULD RENDER SFC-BASED
   EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F AND
   SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   AREAS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION ALSO SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FROM
   PARTS OF ERN TN TO WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF ONGOING PRECIP/CLOUD
   PLUME...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS AND
   INTENSIFICATION OF THAT ACTIVITY TO STG/LOCALLY SVR LEVELS.  IN EACH
   INSTANCE...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG 50-KT SVR
   LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER N...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   THROUGHOUT PERIOD IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME NE OF SFC CYCLONE AND N OF
   WARM FRONT...FROM ERN IA TO NWRN IL.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF PARCELS
   TO LFC...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ROOTED NEAR 850 MB...AND 45-60 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES...WILL SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY
   SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

   ...CA...
   WEAK DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
   VALLEY...FOLLOWING BAROCLINICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP BAND NOW MOVING
   SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN CA.  THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH
   SFC DEW POINTS MID 40S F...STEEPENED LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND LACK OF CINH..SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW BUT STG TSTMS PSBL FROM LATE AFTN
   INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE PROGGED TO BE
   RATHER SMALL DUE TO WEAK/VEERED NEAR-SFC WINDS...OROGRAPHICALLY
   FORCED BACKING AND/OR CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR LOCALLY.  ATTM...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SVR APPEARS VERY
   MARGINAL AND MOSTLY FOR HAIL.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   GREAT MAJORITY OF DRYLINE FROM RIO GRANDE TO NRN OK SHOULD REMAIN
   CAPPED TODAY...BENEATH STOUT EML EVIDENT IN MORNING FWD/DRT/MAF/OUN
   RAOBS.  ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
   THIS AREA...AND ANY CELLS SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO MAY
   POSE RISK OF SVR HAIL.  SOME OPERATIONAL PROGS AND EXPLICITLY
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS YIELD ENOUGH HEATING/MIXING FOR A FEW
   TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR S OF DRYLINE BULGE OVER CENTRAL
   TX...OTHERS DO NOT.  THIS IS TYPICAL OF STRONGLY CAPPED DRYLINE
   SCENARIOS WHERE MESOBETA- TO LOCAL-SCALE FORCING PREDOMINATES. 
   POTENTIAL ATTM APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED TO INTRODUCE
   PROBABILITIES...BUT SMALLER-SCALE DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED IN MESOANALYSES THROUGHOUT TODAY FOR POSSIBILITY
   OF INCLUSION IN A LATER OUTLOOK AND/OR MCD.

   ..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 04/07/2015

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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